Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Gingrich-Romney deadheat in FL...
A month ago Florida was Romney country...Romney was running away with the GOP primary in Florida and expected Florida to be his springboard to the nomination. Fast forward 4 weeks and 6 days before the crucial Florida GOP primary and moneybags is in a tough fight with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. One poll has Gingrich ahead of Romney 40% to 34% among likely voters. While another has Romney edging Gingrich 36% to 34%. Romney loses Florida and hes fucked. There is going to be huge pressure on Romney to get out of the GOP primary and Republican's will go into panic. If Gingrich pulls off a Florida win, I think he is all but assured the GOP nomination. From Florida the race goes into conservative states and Romney will lose all momentum. On the other hand if Romney wins Florida, he will pick up lost momentum from SC and be able to compete with Gingrich, maybe even lose some more conservative states like Georgia or Arizona and rebound with big wins in moderate states like New York and California Pennsylvania. Right now all eyes are on Florida. Absentee ballots are in and in that race the projections are that Romney is ahead. North Florida is very conservative..the Panhandle is conservative...Gingrich might do well up there...then you go into the I-4 cordior..the middle of the state from Tampa to Orlando..more moderate Republicans where Romney should do well...southwest Florida...Naples, wealthy retiree haven where Gingrich might do well by going after Romney on his zero tax on interestand dividends below $250k while Gingrich favors tax cuts for those making above $250k similar to the Bush tax cuts...then you have south Florida...Jewish Republicans and more importanly Cuban American Republicans...Hawish right wing Jewish Republicans might like Newts tough talk on Iran while Cuban American Republicans might turn on Romney for his opposition to the DREAM Act. This is going to be a race to watch.
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