With 2010 here, Democrat's, especially Senate Democrat's don't want to talk about what happens if Harry Reid loses in the fall but what if the Senate Majority Leader goes down for defeat in November? Who leads the Senate, guides Senate Democrat's through the 2012 election cycle and works with President Obama?
Though neither appear ready to admit it, New York Senator Chuck Schumer and Illinois Senator Dick Durbin are both gearing up to run for Senate Majority Leader if Reid doesn't pull it off in November. Let's be honest, Reid is trailing in polls. Nevada is a swing state that Barack Obama won in a year when Bush and the economy were the center issue. 2010 Nevada is still a swing state, there is no Bush, Obama is not running, and the economy is still frail. That signals trouble for Reid and a potential leadership fight in the Senate.
Schumer is the former Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and was the architect behind the Democrat's 60 seat super majority in the Senate. When it comes to voting for a new leader, Schumer starts with 14 votes, members that he has helped elect in the past two cycles. After serving 18 years in the House, Schumer defeated Geraldine Ferraro and Mark Green in the 1998 Democratic primary for the Senate going onto defeat longtime Republican Senator Al D'Amato in the general election. In 2004 Schumer won a second term in the Senate carrying every county in New York except one. Schumer has been a steadfast supporter of the public option and has a solid progressive record in the Senate.
Durbin the Senate Majority Whip elected to the Senate in 1996 served in the House from 1982-96. Durbin ran for the Senate in 1996 to succeed Paul Simon winning by 15 points helped no doubt by Bill Clinton's 18 point victory in Illinois. Durbin is one of the most liberal members of Congress and the former trial lawyer has excellent debate skills. Harry Reid has called him "the best debater" in the U.S. Senate. Durbin was one of 23 Senator's to vote against the War in Iraq. He worked with Senator's Leahy and Schumer to block Bush judicial nominations. Durbin was on Al Gore's shortlist for Vice President in 2000. Durbins office called me in 2000 after I wrote the Senate a favorable letter regarding his VP ambitions in 2000. My only problem with Durbin is that he has wavered on the public option, he now supports the option but has not been as forceful as Schumer in getting the public option in the final bill.
The leadership fight in 2011 could be deadlocked between Schumer and Durbin putting a dark horse contender in the fight. Senator's Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Mark Warner of Virginia and Clarie McCaskill of Missouri come up as compromise candidates or possible darkhorse contenders for the spot.
The Senate needs now more then ever an LBJ. Schumer has that LBJ tendency about him. Schumer has a forceful personality and would exhibit true leadership. He has also wise political instincts that could keep Democrat's in control of the Senate for the next few decades. This of course all boils down to what happens in Nevada.
Life after Harry could be quite interesting.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
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