Gingrich-Romney deadheat in FL...

A month ago Florida was Romney country...Romney was running away with the GOP primary in Florida and expected Florida to be his springboard to the nomination. Fast forward 4 weeks and 6 days before the crucial Florida GOP primary and moneybags is in a tough fight with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. One poll has Gingrich ahead of Romney 40% to 34% among likely voters. While another has Romney edging Gingrich 36% to 34%. Romney loses Florida and hes fucked. There is going to be huge pressure on Romney to get out of the GOP primary and Republican's will go into panic. If Gingrich pulls off a Florida win, I think he is all but assured the GOP nomination. From Florida the race goes into conservative states and Romney will lose all momentum. On the other hand if Romney wins Florida, he will pick up lost momentum from SC and be able to compete with Gingrich, maybe even lose some more conservative states like Georgia or Arizona and rebound with big wins in moderate states like New York and California Pennsylvania. Right now all eyes are on Florida. Absentee ballots are in and in that race the projections are that Romney is ahead. North Florida is very conservative..the Panhandle is conservative...Gingrich might do well up there...then you go into the I-4 cordior..the middle of the state from Tampa to Orlando..more moderate Republicans where Romney should do well...southwest Florida...Naples, wealthy retiree haven where Gingrich might do well by going after Romney on his zero tax on interestand dividends below $250k while Gingrich favors tax cuts for those making above $250k similar to the Bush tax cuts...then you have south Florida...Jewish Republicans and more importanly Cuban American Republicans...Hawish right wing Jewish Republicans might like Newts tough talk on Iran while Cuban American Republicans might turn on Romney for his opposition to the DREAM Act. This is going to be a race to watch.

Gingrich wins South Carolina...stops Romney momentum

Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich has halted Mitt Romney's momentum coming out of New Hampshire with a huge win in South Carolina. Gingrich handily won the state that has picked every Republican Presidential nominee since 1980 with more then 40% of the vote. Gingrich defeated Romney in a landslide among conservative voters and has thrown a wide open race even wider. I have been closely following primaries since 2000 and have never seen anything like this. In 2000 Bush won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire and Bush sealed the deal with a win in South Carolina, a hard fought win. It looked like Huckabee was poised to take the nomination in 2008 with a win in Iowa then McCain came back with a win in New Hampshire and sealed the deal with a win in South Carolina. Look at 2012, Santorum wins Iowa, Romney wins NH and now Gingrich wins South Carolina. Three primaries...three different winners. Republican's are not united and cleary want an alternative to Romney. The race goes to Florida in a week from Tues. I think it's too early to predict what will happen in Florida but if Gingrich can take his South Carolina momentum to Florida and win in Florida, I think it's going to be difficult for Romney to win the nomination. Florida is a middle of the road moderate state, even among Republicans, you have some hard core conservatives in North Florida however the state's Republican's as a whole are a little more to the center which is why Romney has a fighting shot in Florida. Romney wins Florida, he regains his front runner status, Gingrich wins Florida, hes the defacto nominee. I cannot see how Romney can lose Iowa, South Carolina and Florida. Also watch Missouri in February...Missouri is John Ashcroft's home state...if Gingrich can win MO, its a huge victory.

Santorum wins Iowa in recount

A recount in Iowa shows that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum actually won the state. The recount shows that Santorum edged out Romney by 34 votes, the tightest race ever in Iowa. Romney is now 1 for 2 with his win in New Hampshire. Hoping for a score in South Carolina but Newt is closing in fast. SC will go down to the wire....

Feingold 2016?

Feingold 2016? It's getting some talk and I love it! A few weeks ago I blogged about Kirsten Gillibrand the junior Senator from New York. I like Gillibrand a lot and think she would be a great contender. I think Andrew Cuomo another New Yorker who gets some mention could be a formidable contender however he's not top of my list. When I started reading and hearing that Russ Feingold is still raising money for his PAC Progressive Patriots and is being encouraged to mount a 2016 Presidential bid, I thought this is GREAT. Feingold was defeated in his Senate re-election bid in 2010 but so was Rick Santorum back in 2006 and look where he is on their side. Feingold is a true Progressive and with all of these Super PACS, I think the co-author of McCain-Feingold would be a refreshing candidate in 2016.

Huntsman ends WH Bid endorses Romney

After a weak third place showing in New Hampshire and South Carolina poll's showing him polling in single digits, former US Ambassador and Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman has decided to end his bid to become President. Huntsman a moderate Republican who served as US Ambassador to China under President Obama quickly endorses Mitt Romney for the GOP nomination upon ending his campaign. With wins in Iowa and New Hampshire and expected easy wins in South Carolina and Florida, Romney is thought to be the presumptive nominee. While fellow Mormon Jon Huntsman most likely will not make the short list for VP, he could be a contender for Sec of State or Treasury should Romney win in November. Then again if Romney loses, as many of us expect and hope, Huntsman could be a contender for the White House again in 2016. However as Mitt Romney has shown, its going to be difficult to get the right wing to embrace you. If Huntsman is ever again in national politics, it will be as a US Senator from Utah or an appointed position in a future GOP administration.

Romney leads in NH despite slim win in Iowa

Don't look to Iowa as an indication of what is about to happen in New Hampshire. Last Tuesday, national Republican front runner Mitt Romney edged out little known former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by 7 votes. New Hampshire is a totally different story. The former Massachusetts Governor dominates the GOP field in NH with 39%, Ron Paul trails way behind with 17%, Newt Gingrich receives 10% and Santorum and Jon Huntsman are each tied with 9%. A strong showing in NH for Romney is expected. It's Jan 21st, the South Carolina primary that is going to be interesting, very interesting. The former moderate Massachusetts governor faces a big challenge in the first southern primary. The South Carolina primary like Iowa caucus will be dominated by right wing Tea Party Republican's who do not count Romney as their top choice for the GOP nomination.

Rick Santorum...the big story out of Iowa

It doesn't matter if Rick Santorum finishes first or third in Iowa Tuesday, he will no doubt be the big story and will have serious momentum going into New Hampshire the following Tuesday. After all this guy is an obscure former US Senator from Pennsylvania, former because he was defeated for a third term. I remember when Bob Casey defeated Santorum in 2006...many of us on the left myself included thought we had heard the last of Santorum whose claim to fame in the Senate was a mean spirited right wing extreme agenda without any real legislative accomplishment. Rumor's began making the rounds that Santorum would run for governor in 2010, not a bad idea for a former two term Senator in a year the Tea Party was expected to prevail. Then maybe another run for the Senate in 2012, why not George Allen is attempting a comeback in Virginia. However Santorum had other plans in mind. With no real campaign orginization, no money and no big name support, Santorum dove into the 2012 GOP Presidential primary. Virtually ignored at debates, receiving zero media coverage, many including myself thought the Santorum campaign would be over the day after Iowa. Then something strange happend on the way to the caucus. Herman Cain dropped out. Newt Gingrich imploded and Rick Santorum grabbed traction in the polls, a lot of traction. A Santorum win in Iowa on Tuesday a year ago would have received hearty laughs, now it is receiving serious attention...

The missing part of the health care bill

I strongly supported Barack Obama in 2008 and will strongly support his re-election in 2012 especially here in the key state of Florida. I think he has the best legislative record of any President since LBJ. He ended the war, ended the Ghadaffi regime, saved the US auto industry from collapse and passed landmark health care reform. While I strongly support the exisiting health care bill, there is on essential and very important part missing from this landmark historic legislation, THE PUBLIC OPTION. The public option would be a government funded health insurance program that would compete with private insurance companies. The President ran on this in 2008 and supported this idea as did many Congressional Democrats. The public option would force insurance companies, doctors, hospitals and pharmaceuticals to provide adequate care with lower prices. It would allow consumers to buy into a public medicare program. The Senate Health Care Committee could not agree on a public option, thus the proposal was never included in the final version of the health care bill. The President and Congressional Democrat's were eager to pass a health care plan and moved forward with a bill that did not include a public option. Indications are that the President will be re-elected in 2012 and Democrat's maintain a 2% lead in a generic Congressional ballot. If the President wins a second term and Democrat's retain control of the Senate and regain the House in 2012, Obama should ammend the health care plan to include a public option. It would be true health care reform and would provide every American with access to affordable quality health care.

Ben Nelson to retire from Senate

Facing an uphill fight for re-election in 2012, conservative Democratic Nebraska Senator Ben Nelson will retire in 2012 he announced in an email to supporters yesterday. Nelson the state's former governor was elected to the US Senate in 2000 when Bob Kerrey retired and re-elected in 2006. Personally I am glad to see him go. He was the first Democrat to support Sam Alito's nomination to the Supreme Court, he's pro-life, we had to beg him to vote for the health care bill, he supported the Bush tax cuts and he was the only Democrat to oppose Elena Kagan's nomination to the Supreme Court. The President need's a Democratic Senator he can count on. Nelson has been useless and while I am not overly excited about potential successor Bob Kerrey returning to the Senate, I do think he'll support the President. As for Nelson....goodbye, I can't wait to get rid of you!

Slap in the face to Newt?

I remember election night 1994, Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole and House Speaker Newt Gingrich celebrating the victory that gave Republican's control of the House and Senate. It also sealed the correct presumption that Dole would be the GOP nominee for President in 1996. Fast forward 18 years and this time Newt is running for President but without Dole's support. Dole an elder statesman in the Republican Party announced Sunday that he will endorse Mitt Romney for President. This comes days after South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced that she is supporting Romney's bid for the White House. The establishment knows that Romney is the only sound candidate who can run strong against Obama and there nervous with Newt's rise in the polls.

West is a lunatic

I have come to the conclusion that Congressman Allen West of south Florida is NUTS! West was quoted in "The Hill" as saying "If Joseph Goebbels was around, he'd be very proud of the Democrat Party, because they have an incredible propaganda machine". Joseph Goebbels was one of Hitler's closest associates and a Nazi activist. To compare the Democratic party to Joseph Goebbels is not only sick, its highly inappropriate and shows how desperate this pathetic Congressman is. God almighty, I cannot wait to see Lois Frankel defeat West in November!

Herman Cain wants to be Defense Secretary....too funny!

I had to reread Barbara Walter's interview with Herman Cain because I couldn't believe that he suggested in the interview that he would like to be the next Defense Secretary if a Republican is elected President in November 2012. Walter's reminded Cain that he has had difficult with countries to which Cain responded by saying, "Yes, but I have been doing my homework ever since that difficulty." Gingrich has already indicated that he would consider John Bolton for Secretary of State. President Gingrich, VP Rubio, Sec Bolton and Sec Cain....London is looking like a nice place to live if Gingrich becomes President..... I'd rather President Obama, Vice-President Clinton, Sec of State Biden and Sec of Defense Jim Webb....wont happen so about Pres Obama, VP Biden, Sec of State John Kerry and Sec of Defense Jim Webb or Carl Levin...and Dept of Peace Sec. Kucinich :)

Merry Christmas War is over

And so this is Christmas....War is over! The Bush War in Iraq officially ends! "After nine years of war, tens of thousands of casulaties--including 4,500 dead--and more then $800 billion spent, the U.S. military on Thursday formally ended it's mission in Iraq and prepared to leave the country," the Wall Street Journal reports. 4,500 sons, daughters, moms, dads, brothers, and sisters dead.....an illlegal war finally comes to an end.

Gingrich's dangerous comments

It's always comical to hear a stupid remark from a Republican candidate for President however former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's remark's regarding the Palestinians were not only stupid, they were alarming. Gingrich said in an attempt to win over right wing hawk voters that Palestinians "are an invented people". The leading Republican for President said "these people are terrorists". Gingrich went onto say, "It is fundamentally time for somebody to have the guts to stand up and say, enough lying about the Middle East". Palestinian official's responded to Gingrich's remarks. The chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat, said the comments were an incitement to terror. "These statement's of Gingrich's will be the ammunitions and weapons of the Bin Ladens and the extremists for a long, long time", he told CNN. The Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu who is seeking a peace agreement refused to comment calling it internal US politics. Gingrich's comments were out of line for a Presidential candidate and put Israel in greater danger. For someone who is the leading Republican contender for the Presidency, a potential President to make these remarks is not only unpresidential, it's irresponsible and puts Israel in a dangerous position.

Looking ahead to 2016 and looking at Gillibrand

I know we are still three weeks away from the kickoff of the caucus in Iowa and nearly 11 months from the November general election. I get that Republican's haven't nominated a candidate yet and though Gingrich is still the strong favorite there's still a small chance Romney can rebound with a win in New Hampshire making the GOP race wide open. However if all assumptions and poll's are accurate, the November showdown will be Obama vs Gingrich and the President will win a second term which has me looking to 2016 and why not? I've already got my man for '12, why not find my man or woman for '16? The day after the '12 election when the President is re-elected. Confused, misguided Republican's will begin to make their way into Iowa. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Rob Portman, Chris Christie, and maybe even Bobby Jindal will begin to hit the Iowa speaking circuit. Yeah, yeah, who cares! It's the Democratic race I am interested in and we've got to get it right. Several names are making the rounds for '16. Virginia Sen. Mark Warner, NO WAY! Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, maybe! New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, seriously? Vice President Joe Biden, eh, eh, eh, eh... New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, worth a serious look! I remember when Gillibrand was elected to the House in 2006 defeating John Sweeney. She has emerged as a true progressive in the Senate. National Journal ranked her the 10th most liberal member of the Senate, a compliment in my opinion and she has a command of the issues.

Newt-Original Tea Partier

Pistol Annies,Miranda Lambert With John Fogert- 12/7/11



Jon Huntsman the INDEPENDENT for President?

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman the only practical Republican running for President who is trailing in polls is not ruling out a third party run for the White House in 2012.

Though Huntsman is coy about making an Independent run for the Presidency he hasn't entirely closed the door to a possible third party bid. In matter of fact, former New Jersey Governor Christie Todd Whitman is encouraging Huntsman to make a third party run for the Presidency.

The former centrist Republican Governor who served as Barack Obama's Ambassador to China could get 5% as a third party candidate however a third party run would close the door to a 2016 GOP bid. No problem Jon, become a Democrat and run with Joe Biden in 2016 :)

Jon Huntsman's Ad on Mitt Romney's Flip Flops

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